Every week someone asks me the same question: "Silvana, is the Miami market up or down?" And every week I give the same annoying answer — which Miami market do you mean?
Because right now we don't have one market. We have two, and they're moving in opposite directions. If you read a headline about Miami real estate and it doesn't tell you whether it's talking about a house or a condo, that headline is useless to you. Let me show you what I mean, with the numbers as they stand this month.
The split, in plain numbers
Here's the cleanest way to see it. Inventory is measured in "months of supply" — how long it would take to sell everything currently listed. Under about 6 months favors sellers. Over 6 months favors buyers.
Miami-Dade single-family homes: roughly 5.2 months of supply. Still a seller's market.
Miami-Dade condos: roughly 12.9 months of supply. A deep buyer's market.
That's not a small gap. That's two different economies sharing a zip code. And the prices follow:
The median Miami home price sits around $582,000, down just about 1.2% year over year — essentially flat.
The condo median has fallen closer to $415,000, and Miami-Dade's condo median recently slipped below $400,000 for the first time in three years.
Statewide, Florida condo inventory is up roughly 38% year over year, pending condo sales are down about 21%, and condo values in the major markets are off somewhere between 4.7% and 9.9%.
Meanwhile — and this is the part people miss — sales are actually happening. Single-family transactions rose about 10.5% year over year, and condo sales still rose about 5.4%. This isn't a frozen market. It's a market that's repricing.
So why are condos getting hit and houses aren't?
One word: assessments.
After Surfside, Florida rewrote the rules, and 2026 is the year the bill finally comes due. Associations can no longer waive reserves for the eight major structural components — roof, load-bearing walls, fire protection, plumbing, electrical, waterproofing, windows and doors. Buildings had to complete their Structural Integrity Reserve Study, and full reserve funding had to begin this January.
For a well-run building, that's a line item. For a building that deferred maintenance for twenty years, it's a bomb. And the numbers coming out of some of these buildings are genuinely staggering:
Palm Bay Yacht Club in Miami: a $46 million assessment — up to roughly $175,000 per unit.
Cricket Club in North Miami: about $134,000 per unit.
Mediterranean Village in Aventura: assessments reaching up to $400,000 per unit.
Now imagine you're an owner in one of those buildings, on a fixed income, and you get that letter. You list. Fast. Multiply that by hundreds of buildings and you get 12.9 months of condo inventory.
Add one more friction point: many older Miami condo buildings aren't FHA-approved, which quietly removes a huge slice of financed buyers from the pool. Fewer eligible buyers, more motivated sellers. That's the whole story.
💡 The number that matters most: a unit in a building with strong, fully funded reserves now commands a premium of roughly $20,000 to $75,000 or more over an identical unit in a building with reserve deficits and pending assessments. Same view. Same square footage. Different balance sheet. The building's finances have become part of the property's price — and most buyers still don't underwrite for it.
If you're an investor, read this twice
This is the most interesting condo market I've seen in Miami in years, and I don't say that lightly. Distress creates dislocation, and dislocation is where returns live. But the opportunity is specific, not general:
The mispricing is in the discount, not the asset. A unit trading 15% below comps because the building has a fully funded, already-completed assessment is very different from one trading 15% below comps because a $175,000 bill is coming. One is a deal. The other is a trap with a view.
Underwrite the association, not just the unit. I want the milestone inspection report, the reserve study, the last three years of minutes, the current reserve balance, and any assessment already voted or contemplated. If a seller can't produce those, that's your answer.
Post-assessment buildings are the sweet spot. Buildings that have already taken the pain — inspected, assessed, repaired, funded — are now clean assets that the market is still punishing by association. That gap closes.
Negotiating leverage is real right now. With nearly 13 months of supply, the buyer sets the pace. Sellers are entertaining things they wouldn't have looked at eighteen months ago.
And on financing: the 30-year is sitting in the mid-to-high 6s — around 6.7% as of this week. Not cheap, but not the story. In this particular condo market, what you negotiate off the price and off the assessment matters far more than a quarter point on the rate.
If you're a seller, the market is asking something different of you
If you own a single-family home in Miami-Dade, take a breath. At 5.2 months of supply and prices essentially flat, you're still in a decent position. Price it right, present it well, and it moves.
If you own a condo, the game has changed and pretending otherwise costs you money. Here's what actually works right now:
Get ahead of the building's paperwork. Have the milestone inspection, reserve study, and assessment status ready before you list. Buyers are terrified of the unknown — certainty is your single strongest selling tool.
If your building is healthy, say so loudly. That's a $20K–$75K premium sitting on the table, and it only shows up if you prove it.
If an assessment is coming, decide who's paying it — before the first offer. Every buyer will ask. Having a clear, credible answer keeps you in control of the negotiation instead of reacting to it.
Price to today, not to 2022. With 13 months of competition, an overpriced condo doesn't sit — it rots. And a stale listing sells for less than a correctly priced one ever would have.
What I actually think
Miami isn't crashing. Miami is sorting. The market is separating good buildings from bad ones, and it's doing it violently and all at once, because a decade of deferred decisions arrived in the same year. That's painful if you're caught on the wrong side of it — and it's a genuine opening if you're paying attention.
What I don't want is for you to make a six-figure decision based on a headline that didn't tell you whether it was talking about a house or a condo.
Thinking about buying, selling, or picking through the condo market this year? Send me the building or the address and I'll pull the real picture — inventory, comps, reserve health, and what I'd actually pay.
👉 Message me on WhatsApp | 📊 Ask me for my condo due-diligence checklist | ✉️ silvana@carvalhoresidences.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Miami real estate market going down in 2026?
It depends entirely on property type. Miami-Dade single-family homes are roughly flat (median around $582,000, down about 1.2% year over year) with about 5.2 months of supply. Condos are a different story — around 12.9 months of supply, with median prices down and Florida condo values off roughly 4.7%–9.9%.
Why are Miami condo prices falling?
Post-Surfside legislation ended reserve waivers for major structural components and required reserve studies, with full funding beginning in 2026. Buildings with deferred maintenance are issuing large special assessments — in some cases $134,000 to $400,000 per unit — which pushes owners to sell and buyers to hesitate. Many older buildings also lack FHA approval, shrinking the buyer pool.
Is now a good time to buy a Miami condo?
It can be an excellent time — but only with real due diligence. Review the milestone inspection, the structural integrity reserve study, association minutes, reserve balances, and any pending assessment before you offer. A discount that exists because an assessment is coming is not a discount.
What is a special assessment and who pays it?
It's a one-time charge levied by the association on unit owners to cover costs reserves don't fully cover, such as structural repairs. Who pays it in a sale is negotiable — and in this market it is one of the most important terms in the contract.
Should I sell my Miami condo now or wait?
If your building is financially healthy, that's currently worth a meaningful premium and it's a reasonable time to sell. If a large assessment is pending, waiting rarely helps on its own — but completing the work and funding the reserves generally does, since the market pays up for certainty.
Market data reflects mid-July 2026 and moves quickly — if you're reading this later, reach out and I'll pull current numbers for your building or neighborhood. 🔑
Sources: Miami-Dade / Florida Realtors market reports (May–June 2026), Florida DBPR condominium milestone & SIRS requirements, Freddie Mac PMMS and weekly rate surveys (July 2026), and reported association assessments at Palm Bay Yacht Club, Cricket Club, and Mediterranean Village.
