Here is a thing that should bother anyone who owns, or is thinking of buying, a short-term rental in Miami Beach: ask two of the industry's best-known data providers how the market is doing, and you get two different cities.
This week I pulled both. AirROI, tracking the twelve months from August 2025 through July 2026, shows about 4,550 active listings, average annual revenue near $43,000, occupancy of roughly 40%, an average nightly rate around $393, and revenue per listing down about 6% year over year. AirDNA's public Miami Beach page, refreshed this week for the twelve months through August, shows a much smaller market of about 1,625 active listings, average revenue near $64,000, occupancy around 59%, and a nightly rate closer to $325.
Same beach. Same twelve months, give or take one. A $21,000 gap in "average revenue" and a 19-point gap in occupancy. If you are underwriting a purchase or deciding whether to keep a unit on Airbnb, that is not a rounding error. It is the whole decision.
Why the numbers disagree (and why it matters)
I can't see inside either company's model, so treat this as my read rather than gospel. But the pattern points to one thing: who gets counted as "active."
A platform-wide scrape counts every listing that shows up in a search, including calendars that are mostly blocked, owners who rent a few weekends a year, and listings that are quietly dormant. That drags occupancy and average revenue down. A tighter definition, one that only counts listings that are genuinely open for business, shrinks the denominator, and the averages jump. AirROI itself notes that about 87% of Miami Beach listings show evidence of an active registration. That tells you compliance is now the cost of entry here, and it is one more reason the "real" number of serious operators is smaller than the headline count.
💡 What I tell owners: the honest answer is that the market average is a blend of two very different businesses. There is a group of professionally run, properly registered units earning real money, and a long tail of casual or half-legal listings pulling the average toward the floor. Your job is to figure out which group your unit belongs in, not to pick the prettier statistic.
The seasonality is the part nobody prices in
AirROI's monthly pattern is a useful reality check. Peak season (February through April) runs about 54% occupancy at roughly $424 a night, around $6,900 a month in revenue. The low season (August through October) drops to about $3,500 a month at a nightly rate near $309, with September the softest month of the year. That is nearly a 2-to-1 swing in monthly income.
If you are looking at a listing's "annual average" and mentally dividing by twelve, you are going to feel a very different bank balance in September than in March. Owners who carry a mortgage and a $1,000-plus HOA payment through those thin months need a cash reserve sized for the low season, not the average.
Where the rules stand
Nothing dramatic changed on the legal front this week, and that is worth saying plainly. Miami Beach still restricts short-term rentals by zoning district, not with a single citywide switch. The city still requires an approved Certificate of Use, a resort tax registration, a state license, and, for condo units, a letter from the association dated within the last 60 days confirming that transient rental is allowed at your specific unit. The city also has owners acknowledge in writing that using a residential property this way could cost you your homestead exemption. That last line deserves more attention than it gets, because on a Miami Beach assessment the homestead cap is real money.
Florida's statewide attempt to take over short-term-rental regulation, SB 280, was vetoed in 2024, so local control remains. The fine-schedule litigation I covered in August is still the thing to watch. Until it is resolved, treat the rules as enforceable and register properly.
What I would do with this if I owned a Miami Beach STR
Build your own number. Pull your unit's actual trailing-twelve-month revenue, occupancy and nightly rate from your own dashboard and compare it to both data sets. If you are near AirROI's figures, you are an average operator. If you are near AirDNA's, you are running a tight business and your unit may be worth more than the market assumes.
Reserve for September. Size your cash cushion to the low-season month, not the annual average.
Get your paperwork airtight. A current association letter, resort tax filings and license on file protect you today. They also make your unit easier to sell to a buyer who is underwriting the income.
Know your exit value. A documented, compliant rental history is an asset. I have seen buyers pay for it, and I have seen them walk when it could not be proven.
If you are buying: do not underwrite from a single site's average. Ask for the seller's actual booking history, monthly statements and the building's rental rules in writing before you write an offer.
The big lesson from this week's data is simple. In Miami Beach short-term rentals, the average is a mirage and the details decide everything: your building, your registration, your season, and your operator.
Want the real numbers on your unit? Send me the address and I will run what your unit would earn, what it would net after the full cost stack, and what it is worth to a buyer today, with your compliance file and rental history credited. If you are buying, I will underwrite it the same way before you make an offer.
👉 Message me on WhatsApp: https://wa.me/17867670131 | ✉️ silvana@carvalhoresidences.com
Do these two data sources measure the same thing?
Not exactly. Each provider defines an "active" listing differently, so counts, average revenue and occupancy can differ widely for the same city. Use them as a range, then check against your own unit's actual booking history.
Which month is weakest for Miami Beach short-term rentals?
September is the softest month in AirROI's data, with the August to October stretch averaging about $3,500 a month in revenue versus about $6,900 a month at the February to April peak.
Can using my Miami Beach condo as a short-term rental affect my homestead exemption?
The city requires owners to acknowledge in writing that short-term residential rental use could result in the loss of the homestead exemption. Talk to your tax adviser before renting a homesteaded property.
Data sources: AirROI Miami Beach market report (trailing twelve months, August 2025 to July 2026); AirDNA public Miami Beach overview (data through August 2026, viewed September 29, 2026); City of Miami Beach short-term rental requirements page. Figures are provider estimates and methodologies differ. This is general information, not tax or legal advice.
